Prosperity index and operation situation of building materials industry in 2022
In 2022, facing the complex and severe domestic and international situation and the impact of multiple unexpected factors, the economic operation of the building materials industry will remain stable in general, but there will be significant fluctuations. Since the second quarter, affected by repeated epidemics, high fluctuations in the prices of bulk raw materials and other factors, market demand has generally been weak, production has declined, and profits have shrunk, showing a steady downward trend.
Supply side:
The production of building materials industry fell back. From January to September 2022, the added value of building materials industry above designated size decreased by 2.5% year on year. Among the 31 building materials products monitored, the output of 10 products increased year on year, and the output of 14 products decreased by more than 10% year on year. Based on comprehensive judgment, the industrial production index of building materials in 2022 is 96.2 points.
The factory price of building materials continued to decline, but still higher than the same period last year. The supply of building materials continues to exceed the demand, and the factory price of building materials has dropped significantly, with a cumulative decline of 10.9% in the first nine months. From January to September, the ex factory price of building materials was still 4.0% higher than that of the same period last year, and the growth rate continued to narrow. Based on comprehensive judgment, the industrial price index of building materials in 2022 is 102.0 points.
Demand side:
The demand for investment market has weakened significantly. From January to September, the main indicators of the real estate industry dropped significantly, and infrastructure investment increased by 8.6% year on year. The role of investment in building materials industry is weak. Based on comprehensive judgment, the building materials investment demand index in 2022 is 95.3 points.
Industrial consumption kept growing. From January to September, the market of building materials such as automobiles, optical cables, solar cells, electronic information products, and household appliances kept steady growth. Based on comprehensive judgment, the industrial consumption index of building materials in 2022 is 106.2 points.
Foreign trade maintained growth. From January to September, the export of building materials increased by 11.4%. Based on comprehensive judgment, the international trade index of building materials in 2022 is 105.9 points.
Operating environment:
The economic operation of the building materials industry is in the high cost range. The prices of fuel and raw materials remained high throughout the year, and the production costs of enterprises increased significantly.
The external operating environment is tight. Influenced by factors such as frequent outbreaks of epidemic diseases, relatively weak recovery of market demand, and declining profitability of enterprises, the production and operation of enterprises are under great pressure.
Investment in energy conservation and carbon reduction continued to grow. By 2025, the policy requires that the proportion of production capacity above the benchmark level of energy efficiency in cement (clinker), flat glass, and building and sanitary ceramics industries reach 30%, 20%, and 30% respectively, which will involve more than one third of enterprises and more than 2000 production lines. The scale of enterprise investment will continue to grow.
Comprehensive judgment:
The boom index of building materials industry in 2022 will be revised from 106.0 to 98.2, showing the characteristics of wide supply, high inventory and weak demand.
In 2023, under the influence of the expectation of stable growth, the demand for building materials investment will rise steadily, industrial consumption and foreign trade will increase steadily, and industrial transformation and endogenous power will emerge. It is estimated that the gross output value of building materials industry above designated size will increase by 2%~4% in 2023.
