Soaring oil price + high temperature and rainstorm, the timber market may continue to be under pressure
The year 2022 will soon be more than half, but the downstream demand of the timber market is still sluggish. Since March, the timber market has shown a downward trend. Although the timber price has not risen or fallen sharply, the upstream and downstream squeeze has also brought severe challenges to the survival of timber enterprises.
On the cost side, China's timber is dependent on imports, and the sea freight has been in a state of high freight rates and difficult to obtain one container. In addition, affected by the rise of international oil prices, domestic refined oil has experienced ten price adjustments since this year, showing a pattern of "nine rises and one fall". After offsetting the rise and fall, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 2330 yuan and 2245 yuan per ton respectively. This may cause the increase of timber transportation cost and once again reduce the profits of timber enterprises. This year, the demand for wood is already in the doldrums. Faced with the doldrums, wood merchants are difficult to raise the price of wood, so they have to reduce their own profits.
The real estate industry has always been a "big consumer" of wood. However, in the past two years, the real estate market has been depressed, and the demand for wood has also become a "pond fish" affected by the city gate fire. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to may, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8315.25 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%. The new construction area of houses was 516.28 million square meters, down 30.6%. The completed housing area was 233.62 million square meters, down 15.3%. What cannot be ignored is that the operating rate of downstream projects is low, the demand for various building materials is still not improving, the sales volume of building wood formwork is flat, and the market demand is worrying.
In addition, in June, heavy rainfall in the south is seamlessly connected, and Shanghai is also in the plum blossom. From today on, the Middle East of China will usher in a large-scale high-temperature weather process with long duration, strong intensity and local impact of 40 ℃. In the plum rain season, the rainfall increases, the scope is expanded, and outdoor construction is restricted, resulting in weak demand. The demand release is less than expected, and the timber market may continue to be under pressure.
Generally speaking, the cost of wood processing plants is on the rise, but the market demand is sluggish due to the impact of unstable factors such as epidemic situation, real estate downturn, high temperature and rainy weather. However, timber workers should also have confidence, keep a good attitude and move forward steadily. The market demand is only temporarily late and has not disappeared. In the post epidemic era, they should strive to win steadily. While attracting old customers, they should actively explore new markets, strengthen information communication among peers, avoid vicious competition and jointly maintain the stable and sustainable development of the timber industry.
